Flows and positions are *everything*... just look at the SPX case studies

Dec 28, 2023
VolSignals You GEX
After 25 years spent "in the weeds" of index derivatives markets, our minds are made up.

Flows and positions dictate market behavior.

One more time...

Flows and positions dictate market behavior.

"Of course"- you might say. "We've never doubted the laws of supply & demand."

But these markets are different.
No longer *efficient* in the
traditional sense- they have become intensely efficient in the systematic sense.

Case(s) in point? . . .


After moving through FOMC and December OPEX- the SPX entered a low volume period.

Low volume periods are our favorite.


Because against a low volume, or low liquidity backdrop- systematic forces, and hedging demands related to large positions both become dominant in determining market price and volatility.

The market proceeded to plod along, and just like a strong magnet- the large SPX open interest in the Dec30th 3835 Call (you may know the fund..), which option dealers were long acted as a PIN.

A very strong one.

Just look at the chart-


After SPX OPEX cleared option positioning and associated supportive mechanical hedging flows-

CTA suddenly became relevant- as the market lost its "floor"

Now, our Discord isn't about trade signals- it's about teaching traders the reality of modern market structure.

Once you see the Matrix, you no longer fall for its traps.
You put it to work for you.
We (publicly) fought-off our bearish inclination until *just the right moment*.

Just look at the chart-

On April 20th '23:

"This is the first day in which I am comfortable taking a modest short entry next week: 4/26 3900-4100 Put Fly"

Have a look at the chart (and our *precision-timed* tactical short)page4image56907776 


This one should be fresh in your memory- and we pounded the table with our view throughout most of late July / early August on both our subreddit and Twitter...

page5image45341360 July OPEX cleared the deck of supportive positioning

page5image45341360 Large, well-timed AGGRESSIVE trades forced MMs into *negative* gamma

page5image45341360 Selling off through CTA triggers produced LARGE selling flows

page5image45341360Spiking realized volatility forced VOL Control selling flows

page5image45341360Charm / Gamma-related flows culminated in an OPEX bottom

...and finally, with the "deck cleared" of meaningful systematic weight on the market-

It reversed course and rallied- even through ostensibly bearish (hawkish) commentary at Jackson Hole.

See for yourself- 

Magic . . ?

No. Much more straightforward-
The market is DOMINATED by systematic and structural volatility trades

which happen no matter what is going on in macro.
The market is DOMINATED by these positions, which require mechanical

hedging by the dealers which carry them.

The markets are DOMINATED by systematic, rules-based futures flows which- when understood- can be strategically incorporated to IMPROVE your own trades, and NAIL short-term entries.

All of these forces are impacting price, and either constraining or exacerbating both trend and volatility.

We teach you:

What's happening under the hood...
WHEN to look for it, HOW to identify it, and . . .
HOW to profit from it.


—taught by a former index derivatives dealer-practitioner & active trader.

  • We start with SPX dealer option-hedging mechanics; then learn-
  • the reality of the SPX volatility market
    • ..from 0DTE to LEAPS (everything is covered)
  • including profiles of ACTUAL systematic option flows;
  • and their impact on price & volatility of the underlying...
  • Discover...
    • how 0DTE *really* impacts the market,
    • how the GEX profile *really* looks (you'll be shocked),
    • how event hedging comes into play (and how to exploit it)
  • Find out...
    • how CTAs & Vol Control funds work; and
    • how to anticipate and trade around their flows
  • Learn...
    • how to identify when a confluence of these factors..
    • creates an incredible tactical setup; and
    • how to optimally use options, given market positioning and dynamics...
    • to maximize your PNL with high risk-reward trades
  • All while enjoying...
    • AMA STYLE engagement with leading professionals
    • Group chat with competent, experienced SPX traders (and many pros)
    • Stories & case studies that will blow your mind...

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